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Will Brexit leave UK economy in a lurch?

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UK economy

The UK economy is likely to witness better times, and emerge as one of the best performers in stock markets in 2019, says Fidelity’s Bill McQuaker. However, the manager of the Fidelity Multi-Asset Open range of funds said that medium term investors are not off the mark to tread with care.

On Thursday, FTSE 100 had the biggest one-day drop since the EU referendum poll, resulting a drop of 3.2% of 6,685 due to concerns that revolved around the vulnerability of ceasefire in US-China trade war. This might pose a threat to the UK economy.

Notwithstanding the political drama in the House of Commons on Tuesday, the UK stocks nosedived, with FTSE 100 dipping over 5% since the start of the week.

However, McQuaker is not worried about the mid-cap FTSE 250 outperforming its blue-chip counterpart, because he is confident that there are numerous aspects that could impact the UK stocks.

The UK economy is readying for a softer Brexit, as per McQuaker. Investors haven’t been showing a lot of interest in UK equities. This could be a blessing in disguise, for “if there is going to be a deterioration in market conditions, people won’t be selling the UK because they’ve sold out of it already,” he quipped.

If it actually goes the way McQuaker says it will, there will be some short-term upside to the Sterling. This could make the FTSE 250 outperform, as compared to the FTSE 100, as the latter is quite dependent on US dollar denominated revenues.

Talking about how Brexit would pan out in the next decade, he says, “When I look at the environment that I think we’re likely to face in the medium term, I’d say that’s where I get a bit more depressed, quite frankly.”

“We’re not going to get the benefits of staying in the EU, and we’re not going to get the benefits of Brexit,” McQuaker points out.

This is true indeed, for the world will not be interested in investing in a country that’s going to be in a limbo for the next 10 years. Does this mean Brexit will leave the UK economy in a lurch?

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Financial Regulators: Vulnerable Customers Must Be Dealt with Care

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Financial Regulators

Debt, often deemed as the cheapest and best source of finance, is reportedly creating problems for the common people. Therefore, keeping in mind the scenario financial regulators have urged the debt collection firms to improve the way they deal with vulnerable customers.

Nearly 32% of the complaints dealt with by the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS) in 2018 relating to debt collection were upheld in consumers’ favor. However, uphold rates on some issues with debt collection were higher. As a reference, more than 54% of the complaints on the breaches of confidentiality were upheld.

The figures clearly show that a lack of empathy and flexibility in the proceedings is a major contributor to the problems of vulnerable customers.

Caroline Wayman, chief ombudsman and chief executive of the Financial Ombudsman Service said: “In the past three years we have investigated thousands of complaints from consumers about debt collection companies. These complaints cover a wide range of issues, including aggressive customer service tactics, disputes about the size of the debt, breaches of confidentiality and failure to carry out instructions.” She added, “we have seen cases where a lack of empathy or flexibility from businesses can create more problems for people who are struggling, and who may be in vulnerable circumstances.”

According to the stats, FOS handled around 3,300 inquires about debt collection and received more than 1000 complaints for investigation. These included cover credit and consumer loans, such as mortgages, credit cards, and personal or business loans.

The issues, therefore, created a ruckus and left the customers exposed to unexpected situations. Also, of the total complaints looked into by the FOS, one in five were about whether the consumer was charged the right amount of money or not. One in seven complaints were about service related issues and another 13% where the customer told the service that the debt being asked for did not belong to them.

Consumers of debt are often attracted towards it following the price at which it is available. Besides, even businesses made the situation difficult for consumers who took money, but were unable to return it, in terms of how much money they were willing to accept last year.

“We would encourage anyone who has a dispute with a debt collection company to contact us, ” Wayman said. Further explaining, “In our research we did see examples of good practice from companies, and we would encourage all debt collection companies to learn from and follow industry good practice.”

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Post the Rejection of Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement, Pound Surges

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The Pound

Following the defeat of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal agreement, the pound witnessed a surge on Tuesday.

May’s Brexit deal was rejected by 230 votes – one of the largest defeats for a sitting government in the history, with MPs voting 432 votes to 202 to reject the deal.

Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has called in a vote of no confidence in the government that could result in a general election. The vote is to be held at 7pm Wednesday.

MPs are expected to debate the no confidence motion called in by the opposition, for around six hours after May’s questions at noon. Corbyn said it would allow the House of Commons to “give its verdict on the sheer incompetence of this government”.

The pound raised more than a cent to stand above $1.28 after the vote on the withdrawal agreement. It was last trading at $1.2871, up 0.06 percent on the day.

The pound rallied up 0.5 percent against the euro at 88.7 pence.

The rejection came as a huge blow to the Prime Minister, who had spent more than two years negotiating a deal with the European Union. The defeat was much more than what was anticipated in the market. The pound surge is based on the market expectations that the vote defeat will now push lawmakers to look for alternate options.

Amidst the growing uncertainty in the financial market, investors have been urged by UBS Global Wealth Management to limit their exposure to UK assets as the market is still vulnerable to political volatility.

‘I think the market’s take on (this defeat) is that it ups the probability of a soft Brexit ultimately evolving after a no-confidence vote,’ said Alan Ruskin, global head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York.

Following the vote, UK economist Dean Turner said, Market volatility will not subside until a concrete conclusion to the process emerges.

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No Deal Brexit will Spell Gloom for UK Wine Industry

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No deal Brexit

While the Britain economy is about to become independent of the European Union, several industries in the country are fretful about a no deal Brexit. The UK wine industry, in particular, is having major concerns regarding the UK leaving the bloc with no deal, as well as the budget that penalised wine.

The Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA) met with the Treasury Minister Robert Jenrick to discuss the issues over no deal Brexit fears and duty hikes.

During the November Budget, the Chancellor brought a good news for the spirit makers, as he froze duty. However, wine was unfairly picked on for a 3.1 per cent RPI increase.

It is asserted that consumers will witness a rise in wine prices from February 1, 2019, when the duty increase will kick in. Estimates show that prices of an average priced bottle of wine will surge by a further 7p for still wine, 9p for sparkling and 9p for fortified wine. The estimations do not include VAT, which will further add 20 per cent to the increased prices.

The meeting between Jenrick and the WSTA senior team took place on Monday. The Treasury Minister was warned that the potential no deal Brexit combined with duty hikes will launch an austere situation for the wine importers, who are already under the burden of the dropped value of pound sterling.

Chief Executive of the WSTA, Miles Beale said, “I met Robert Jenrick and told him that Government’s decision actively to single out wine for an increase at October’s Budget was a bitter blow to UK wine importers, who have already been hit hard by the devaluation of the pound.”

“The UK wine industry has grave concerns over unfair duty rises, made worse by the prospect of a no deal Brexit,” he said.

Beale also said that the wine and spirit industry would back any government proposal, which would meet their requirements and also gain a majority in Parliament.

He also highlighted that only two options remain, including Theresa May’s current deal or a no deal Brexit, while the option of no Brexit is not on the table at all.

According to Beale, the lack of options is unacceptable for businesses, which are already striving to prepare themselves for the future.

“The clock is running down, the government is letting us down and on top of this has chosen to punish unfairly wine and wine consumers with a duty rise. It would be laughable if it weren’t so serious. And decisions should certainly not have been put off until January,” he said.

In comparison to other categories of alcoholic drinks, Britain has been harsh on wine since 2010, witnessing 39 per cent increase, while 27 per cent for spirits and only 16 per cent for beer.

Using an OBR modelling, the WSTA team highlighted to Jenrick that the major trade concerns forecasted by Treasury are based on flawed numbers, ignoring the impact of price increases on consumer behaviour.

Before the referendum on Brexit, an average priced wine bottle was sold at £5.40 in the UK, which according to the WSTA market report has reached £5.73.

While the fears of no deal Brexit still remain, it has already been estimated that the wine prices are likely to rise again, owing to the wine duty increase in February 1, 2019.

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